PRN Trader
We help you buy or sell your PRNs
prn-trader-news-background.jpg

Latest News

PRN Trader Comment & News

PRN Market Report – Wk End : Friday 18th May 2018

PRN Market Overview

This week’s release of the 2018 demand figures confirmed the challenging increase in the Wood target. It was no surprise that most materials have reported demand down on 2017 levels as registrations are expected to grow in the coming months. At the time of publishing the producer registration list was reporting 6,616 producers registered against last year’s final figure of 7,002 a difference of 392 companies. Both Plastic and Wood demand was up on the previous year due to their respective target increases.  Wood note availability continued to dominate market discussions with a lack of supply raising concerns. Prices remained stable with trading transacting at £25.00 per tonne. There was good news for Plastic buyers with prices finally starting to soften, down £2.00 on last week. Buyers have been comforted by the strength of this year’s supply figures and the strong carry in position from January which has led many to divert attention to other materials.

It was a busy week for Glass trading as buyers and sellers digesting news of yet another court case. Trading activity increased tenfold as affected parties looked to close buying positions. With the tightness in Aggregate supply, it was no surprise that note values continued to align. Both the Paper and Aluminium prices increased and while the lack of supply in Paper provided the subtext for that notes increase, it would appear a lower April supply figure created some upward price pressure on the Aluminium value.

Screen Shot 2018-07-16 at 10.21.24.png
PRN Weekly Market Report – Friday 11th May 2018

Packaging Recovery Notes Market Overview

Ongoing concerns around this year’s Paper supply has resulted in this price increasing again. The April monthly return, as listed in table 3 below, indicated that supply was continuing to tighten and once again this created upward pressure with independent buyers eager to secure tonnage. The Wood supply figure, which was also down on the same period last year, indicated that even a record high price of £25.00 has done little to increase supply to this market. This confirms that there is still some way to go before the market can compete with the biomass sector for the packaging grade material. Concerns have been raised with the BEIS Energy minister, Claire Perry, by local Cowie MP Stephen Kerr due to one of the companies located in his area, Norbord Ltd, reporting issues in securing material for its processes. The minister has agreed to look into the matter with some urgency although at this stage in the compliance year it is hard to see what changes could be brought in to ease supply pressure in 2018.

Most other materials had a reasonably stable week with only Glass Aggregate notes reporting an increase in value due to the currently disparity between demand and availability in this market. It is no surprise that the Aggregate note value is starting to increase and it is expected to eventually match the Remelt note value if we see no improvement in reported supply. Good news for Plastic buyers with the recent monthly return reporting substantial growth on the same period last year. The strength of this year’s carry in combined with the positive monthly supply news has resulted in prices softening this week, down £1.00 on last weeks reported price.  The 2018 demand figures along with the company registration lists are due to be released this week on the Tuesday 15th and while this gives us the first indication of this year’s demand, readers are reminded that these figures are likely to change when late registrations are included.

110518 board.jpg
2018 Q1 Reprocessing & Export Supply Figures
Screen Shot 2018-04-26 at 11.45.22.png

Collectively, the Glass supply looks reasonably comfortable although Aggregate supply continues to decrease with the shortfall being covered by increased Remelt tonnage. If the trend was to continue then one would expect both note values to align.

Some will have been slightly shocked by the strength of the recently released supply figures as Plastic had reported Q1 supply at 322KT. This was quickly revised down to 251KT for the quarter bringing it closer to the projected quarterly demand. Although slightly behind the 2017 Q1 figure (261KT) some sellers are  still to finalise their return and it is hoped that when complete the figure will be in line with demand expectations. Plastic prices are expected to hold at current levels for the next quarter to ensure supply is secured. 

In Paper, a 140k decrease from the same period in 2017 has resulted in prices increasing. It may be that we are finally seeing the effect of the export ban on Mixed Paper grades into to China. Paper demand is expected to increase this year with the general recycling pot requiring significant excess tonnage from this market. In the short term one would expect some further upward pressure on the price.

Wood supply is down on the same period last year even in light of the fact that we have seen trading open at historically high levels this year. As with Paper, it is expected this market will see further price increases in the short term.  With the Wood market unable to provide supply for the general recycling pot other markets will need to produce significant surplus to make up the shortfall.

The Q1 figures show that Steel is producing an excess but unfortunately at current levels it will fail to accommodate the anticipated increase in general recycling demand. Weak early pricing has done little to incentivise sellers and this market remains finely balanced going forward. 

In Aluminium we are on track however the reduced carry in tonnage has ensured close attention is paid to this year’s supply as a weak quarter could result in significant upward pressure on prices. 

Finally, The EFW market continues to produce significant surplus and based on the most recent figures prices should remain at the bottom end of the scale for the foreseeable future.

 

 

   - Ian Andrews

MRW Article : 2018 Q1 Reprocessing & Export Supply Figure Analysis.

Now that the first set of PRN supply figures have been released we take a look at how we are performing at the first reporting point of the year.

The stand out figure was in Paper where it was reported for the quarter that we are 140KT behind estimated demand. Although not disastrous, due to the healthy carry in figure, it is certainly concerning to see this market so far behind at this stage given most producers expect this market to fill general recycling obligations this year. General recycling obligations are allocated to producers with the option to purchase any of the material recovery notes in the market. Traditionally this obligation has been filled by the Paper and Wood markets however with the total Wood supply required to meet its material specific demand this year little will be available for this obligation.

Combined, the Glass market has produced close to target with Remelt once again making up the Aggregate shortfall. There is still work to be done with growth of 40KT next quarter required if prices are to remain at current levels. One would expect to see some upward pressure on prices this quarter with the note values aligning due to the Aggregate undersupply position.

In Aluminium, many heads continue to be scratched due to the failure of one seller to release tonnage of 8.5KT in Q4 last year. With the carry in figure falling by 75% on the previous year and a lower than expected Q1 figure buyers may be ruing that sellers decision this year. While prices will remain stable next quarter, continuing the current supply trend will see upward price pressure later in the year.

Steel supply was down on Q1 2017 but was in line with estimated demand. It’s surprising to see market note values trading at the lower end of the scale given the tightness in supply. Based on this recent return I would expect some upward price pressure in the coming months.

Plastic provided a scare for sellers when initial figures reported a supply of 322KT, 55KT above requirement, but this was quickly revised down to leaving the market close to balance. A healthy carry in figure for Plastic  should insure settled prices going forward this quarter.

The record breaking target increase for Wood this year has already resulted in prices opening at record levels as buyers looked to secure tonnage early. The latest supply figures showed the market was undersupplied and that increases would be required going forward to alleviate buyers concerns. On current projections this market will provide no excess tonnage for general recycling obligations placing further pressure on other markets to increase supply.

The EFW sector reported another healthy quarterly supply with little concern going forward and prices remaining at the bottom end of the scale. 

The next set of quarterly figures are due to be released in July (23rd) and we will need to see significant improvements in Paper and Wood to avert further concerns going forward. All other material evidence note markets require some growth but at this stage look achievable.

Ian Andrews

MRW1.jpg
Ian AndrewsComment
CIWM Journal Article – Review of Q1 Reprocessing/Export figures 2018.

At the start of this week the Environment Agency released the first set of Packaging Recovery Note (PRN) supply figures for 2018. These provide the first indication of the projected supply and will highlight what progress has been made towards this year’s targets.  China, its material bans on paper and plastic and the impacts are foremost on everyone’s minds.

With the Plastic market seeing the most volatility over the last few years it was comforting to see quarterly volumes reported at close to target. The initial report reported Plastic supply at 322,000 Tonnes (or 322KT) but this was quickly revised down to 251KT once submission errors had been rectified. At this level it was 10KT down on the same period last year.   However, with several reprocessors still to sign off their quarterly return, it is hoped that once completed, the supply will be on target for the quarter. Demand this year is expected to be about 265KT but the carry in tonnage should alleviate any short-term supply concerns.  This is last year’s December supply that can be used in this year and allows for a bit of a buffer in supply. Given the strength of the carry in one would expect prices to settle. If this supply can be maintained for Q2 then one would expect prices to soften later in the year.

Paper reported a sizable drop in supply on the same period last year dropping from 966KT to 822KT. It is thought that the restrictions placed on the export of mixed papers to China are finally starting to take effect. Once again, a reasonably strong carry in figure should address the short term concerns. The market has already reported an increase in Paper prices due to Q1 supply being allocated to forward contracts which has left the market undersupplied. The rise is from £1 to £5 and possibly further increases in the Paper price can be expected as the dwindling supply receives more attention from general recycling buyers.

The Paper market is due to see increased General Recycling Note demand this year; General recycling obligations are allocated to producers with the option to purchase any of the material recovery notes in the market. In the past this has ensured over supplied markets have an option to generate income albeit always  at the cheapest material note value. The Wood market has always provided a healthy surplus for the General Recycling pot of demand but with Wood obligations set to increase this year by over 70% in real terms producers will be looking for Paper to make up the shortfall.

As mentioned in the previous paragraph, the Wood demand is set to increase by 70% to about 417KT due to the new target . The Q1 supply was down by 13KT on 2017 figures and it will require 80KT additional growth if we are to meet this year’s material specific demand. With opening prices increasing to their highest level during the quarter (£15) it is concerning that current prices haven’t facilitated any growth in supply. As the note value increases this is meant to incentivise sellers to produce more supply, the problem in the Wood market is that the raw material is already competing with a heavily incentivized Biomass market and unfortunately losing the battle. The price will have to increase further if we are to close the 80KT supply gap for Wood.

Collectively, both Glass markets (Remelt & Aggregate) have managed to produce enough supply but it should be noted that this market is finely balanced. Aggregate supply continues to fall with Remelt only just covering the shortfall. Price for both grades should remain stable going forward but are expected to align at about £13 as the year progresses.

Aluminium has reported some growth this quarter, however due to target increases the supply only remains only on track with demand. A reduction in carry in tonnage has increased concerns and it is expected prices will hold at current levels (£15).  It is suspected that there should be a plentiful supply as last year was somewhat anomalous with at least one reprocessor hanging on to tonnage and not selling it, nor allowing it to be carried into 2018.

Steel, although performing well, is slightly behind last year’s supply. It had been hoped that this market would provide surplus tonnage to meet general recycling demand but at this stage this material cannot be relied upon. With prices opening at the low end of the pricing scale (£5), little incentive has been provided to increase supply last quarter.

The EFW market is well supplied and is expected to maintain current price levels (<£1).

Overall the figures were in line with expectations. With the exception of Paper, most grades reported similar levels of supply to last year but with increased targets, along with export restrictions and dwindling general recycling supply these latest figures show there is still some work ahead. Those markets which have already recorded higher than expected prices may see further increases in value if the Q2 report (23rd July 2018) fails to report a surplus.

Ian Andrews

CIWM1.jpg
PRN Weekly Report 13th April 2018
Screen Shot 2018-04-19 at 09.43.14.png

Packaging Recovery Notes Market Overview

Price increases were seen this week in Paper, Glass Remelt and Wood. In Paper, the continuing lack of supply resulted in prices increasing again this week with the market appearing undersupplied due to some substantial forward contracting secured in late 2017.Annual demand from independently obligated companies entering the market has also provided some upward price pressure. Talk of some issues affecting export Remelt tonnage combined with the undersupply position reported in Glass Aggregate notes has resulted in a small increase in the Glass Remelt price this week. In Wood, the price has risen again as traditional early buyers competed with concerned volume buyers to secure their tonnage. 

The monthly figures for March (see below) have reported an improvement in the Wood supply when based against last year but remain some way of target and are expected to do little to stem the increased prices in the short term. Worryingly the Paper volumes reported are considerably below last year’s figure and provide some evidence of the concerns voiced by exporters of mixed Paper. The Q1 published figures are due to be released on the 23rd of April and on the evidence of the latest monthly figures buyers will be hoping for increases for Paper and Wood supply in order to head of further price increases this year.  If the system is to work as its designed then short term price increases should bolster supply going forward.

PRN Market Overview 6th April 2018
Screen Shot 2018-04-19 at 09.40.55.png

Packaging Recovery Notes Market Overview

As the registration deadline approaches and with the timing of the Easter holidays leading some to take an early year break this week trading activity has been weak. The only noticeable change in market prices was seen in the Paper market with prices increasing up to £3.25. As has previously been reported a lack of available tonnage has resulted in the Paper price increasing. Now that the deadline of independent registration is passed and companies choosing this option are in receipt of their obligations for the year it is expected that trading activity will increase this week which may lead to some additional upward pressure on prices. 

This month we are due to see the first published supply information (22nd April Q1), and these figures along with the monthly analysis may result in a price correction depending on what results are published. Of most interest will be the current state of play in the Paper, Plastic and Wood markets. In Plastic, were early year returns appear to be strong, confirmation of a good quarter should result in a softening of the price. On early year information it would appear the Wood market will need to record a significant return if we are to avoid further price increases. Buyers will hope we see some evidence of a stronger supply position in order to take some pressure out of what appears to be an increasing Paper price.  All other prices remained routed in their previously reported prices spreads.

PRN Market Report 30th March 2018
Screen Shot 2018-04-19 at 09.38.31.png

Packaging Recovery Notes Market Overview

Once again this week prices remained relatively stable across most materials. The only price increase reported was seen in Plastic were top end prices rose by £1.50 due to some significant demand being sourced. All remaining prices remained stable however it must be noted that a lack of wood supply aided the stability of this price as little trading was reported.  

We are currently in the period of the year where stakeholders are busy finalising submissions to the agencies. It is expected that we will see some increased volume trading in the coming weeks once focus shifts back to 2018 buying requirement. We can expect to see the confirmed Q4 supply figures this week which will assist the market in providing further evidence of carry in tonnage this year. As previously reported both Aluminium and Glass Aggregate tonnage are considerably behind last year’s carry in level so these will no doubt see the most focus going forward.

PRn Market Overview 23rd March 2018
Screen Shot 2018-04-19 at 09.35.37.png

Packaging Recovery Market Overview

Prices have remained relatively stable this week with the only reported increase being seen in the Paper market. This market has seen a lack of availability help rally the price. Concerns regarding the availability of Wood prns this year continues to dominate discussions with weak tonnage available due to increased contract commitments this year. Prices for wood held firm but only due to a lack of available tonnage being traded. 

In the table below it have tried to shed some light on the challenges ahead this year. All 2018 demand figures are based on an estimate of packaging handled figures for 2017 with the 2018 targets applied. The supply figures quoted for January and February are from the monthly report and unaudited so we would advise clients to be wary of making trading decisions on the current information to hand. The table highlights the concerns regarding wood supply this year with current available volumes running 60% behind the quarterly target. An improvement in the reported Q1 figures for Aluminium and Glass Aggregate will also be required is we are to avoid any upward price pressure in these markets as the year progresses.

PRN Market Overview 16 March 2018

PRN Market Overview

This week, an increase in the top end Paper price has been seen from a shortage in available supply resulting in some upward pressure. There has been a sizable increase in Paper being forward contracted and it is thought that a lack of available Q1 supply has contributed to the price increase. Good demand continues to be recorded in Plastic and this has resulted in the spread closing with buyers unwilling to risk leaving purchasing until later in the year. Wood still dominates early year discussions with prices continuing to increase albeit in small increments. Concerns raised surrounding Steel availability as highlighted in the lower February figure appear to be unfounded with prices falling back this week. 

Throughout the week WRAP and INCPEN have been running workshops with a number of different stakeholder groups to discuss improvements to the PRN system. This review is long overdue and is hoped will result in more focus being placed on domestic reprocessing infrastructure in the wake of the problems emanating from the Chinese market. It has been rumoured that a split plastic target may be on the cards but many sellers have voiced concerns that they will be required to police and determine how the material grades are split something which most have said is unrealistic. In other news the National Audit Office is undertaking a review of the PRN system to assess its effectiveness and whether measures to deal with fraud in the system are robust enough, again something which has been long overdue and greatly welcomed.

Screen Shot 2018-03-23 at 08.01.34.png
PRN Market Overview 12 March 2018
12mar18-prn.jpg

Packaging Recovery Notes Market Overview

Another quiet trading week with most prices remaining stable. The Paper price firmed up at the bottom end with some strong forward contracting being recorded. The Plastic top end price increased by a small amount although it should be noted that volumes traded were down on the previous week. Wood availability concerns continued to produce an upward increase in value.

Today we have seen the release of the February monthly figure summary report (see table below). Please note these figures are unaudited and likely to change once the published Q1 figures are released on the 22nd April. The figures show a sizeably decrease in Paper availability for the month, something many have voiced concerns about and giving some reasoning behind the increased price over the last few weeks. Plastic has reported a stronger position than 2017 showing that the higher evidence note value is contributing to better returns this year. A decline in Glass Aggregate tonnage has been helped by a more robust Glass Remelt figure which should alienate any concerns. In Steel, a sizable drop in volume may cause some concern however if we compare the Q1 trend with last year’s monthly figures we should see additional tonnage reported at the end of the quarter.

 

 

   - Ian Andrews

Packaging Recovery Market Report – 2nd March 2018
2nd-March-2018.jpg

PRN Market Overview

During the week we saw the release of the interim Q4 return along with an overview of transitional tonnage pushed across into 2018 (see table below). Aluminium saw carry figures fall by 60% from the previous year and provides some understanding as to why 2017 prices finished with a rally at the end of the year. Plastic recorded another excellent quarterly return aided by the better prices at the end of the year and in trend with the previously reported quarterly totals, somewhat confounded the media articles regarding exports. Glass tightened as expected but not by as much as many believed. Glass Remelt continued to dominate providing over 100,000 tonnes towards the Aggregate pot which saw in year supply fall by 19%. All other materials reported in line with last year’s totals with both Steel and Wood reporting excellent surplus. Given that the increased Wood target will require most of this year’s supply there are concerns regarding the meeting of the general recycling obligations from other materials.

Prices this week were relatively stable with only a tightening of the Paper supply resulting in some uplift in value in this market. Aluminium saw a small increase due to contracted fixed price delivery for the 1st quarter.

 

 

   - Ian Andrews

PRN Market Report – 23rd Feb 2018
23rd-Feb-2018.jpg

 

Packaging Recovery Notes Market Overview

With the scheme data rounds in full swing activity this week was low. Most prices remained stable with only Paper and Wood showing some upward movement. In Wood a lack of available tonnage meant that those holding surplus could demand a premium from early buyers concerned about how this year’s additional demand will be satisfied. The Paper market saw a small increase as again available tonnage became harder to source. With the new restrictions on mixed paper exports now effecting tonnage generated from this side of the market and domestic supply being contracted up early by concerned buyers a lack of availability resulted in this price increase. While I have commented previously regarding the potential wood problems the supply figures throughout last year and this year appear to show no concerns for Paper supply. It may be the case that this year the Paper market sees market sentiment dictate the price as was seen throughout 2017 in Plastic.

All other material prices remained stable with volume activity being recorded in Glass as early buyers looked to close positions in the belief the published transitional figures will be lower this year leading to some upward pressure on the price.

 

 

   - Ian Andrews

CIWM Article - 2017 Review - One Door Closes as another Opens.

Now that the 2017 packaging compliance year has drawn to a close we look back at the issues surrounding last year’s compliance and look forward to what 2018 has in store.

The 2017 compliance year opened with packaging recovery note (PRN) prices trading at similar levels to 2016. Plastic was the highest value note at the start of the year and would continue to hold stakeholders attention throughout the year. Early trading was £25 per tonne however when media articles started to circulate regarding more stringent import controls on material destined for the Chinese market, prices started to increase. Concerns continued to dominate discussions during Q2 with news articles being printed every week highlighting them.

The PRN system was designed to increase price during a shortage to encourage more reprocessing or investment in capacity by having a more expensive note.  In other words, if there is a shortage then the price goes up and vice versa.  Historically this market mechanism has worked.  

Analysis of the reported monthly supply figures allowed stakeholders to get an early insight into the potential scale of the problems ahead.  During 2017, against the background of strong supply the evidence note price continued to increase to three times the starting price. This de-coupling of supply and price was initially challenging to understand.

As the year progressed it became clear that the Chinese authorities were preparing to continue implementing more stringent import controls with the introduction of the new National Sword protocol aiming to not only restrict lower grade plastic material but also target mixed paper grades. Confusingly, this news did not have the same effect on the Paper PRN price as seen in Plastic.

The confirmation of record breaking target increases (in real terms by around 70%) for Wood from 2018 onwards coupled with a downturn in packaging grade material going to recycling plants resulted in a tightening of supply towards the end of the year. This resulted in prices increasing from £2 to a high of £10 per tonne.

A dramatic increase of more than a factor of 10 in the Aluminium note value in the final days of the compliance year once again left many scratching their heads as again supply had indicated a surplus supply throughout the year.  Suggestions of market making or manipulation have been heard in the industry.

Looking forward to 2018 there do appear to be many challenges ahead. Plastic once again dominates early year discussions but if the system is to work as it is designed to, one would expect a more stable year.  We have already seen higher note values assist in identifying and facilitating exports to new end markets in 2017. One can argue that at some stage those new markets will become oversupplied and exports could slow again in which case we may see an increase in prices later in the year.

In order to fully address our reliance on export markets we need to be investing more in domestic reprocessing plants.  There has been limited success and many failures previously.  This has been attributed, in part, to a lack of support from the PRN system.  The higher values previously assisted with the export of material as opposed to incentivising domestic reprocessing facilities. 

Given that quality standards are starting to increase in the end export markets focus, has shifted back to development of domestic facilities and the higher value PRN should go some way to assisting this process. Indeed the recent announcement by Beauparc Utilities is the most recent of at least four new facilities opened or being planned.

With the weight of media attention now firmly focused on Plastic pollution it is expected this story will continue to develop this year so watch this space!

Ian Andrews

PRN Weekly Market Report 9th Feb 2018

Packing Recover Notes Market Overview

Following on from last week’s frantic final purchasing for the 2017 compliance year things quietened down as both buyers and sellers reflected on what the year ahead holds. We have seen some activity this week in the lower value materials with both Paper and Recovery reporting good volume sales. Plastic continued to trade albeit in smaller volumes with prices continuing to edge up.

The first set of monthly figures were released for the year and although unaudited they give a small insight to how the year started when compared against the 2017 figures. By in large it was a positive return with overall volumes up by 40,000 tonnes against last year. The materials which reported under their 2017 positions where Alumninium, Wood and Glass Aggregate. In Aluminium the shortfall reported was minimal and at this stage will not raise any concerns. In Wood, this year’s figure was 7,000 tonnes behind which although concerning may be a result of sellers not uploading early tonnages as has been suggested by some in the market. Glass aggregate tonnage fell by 10,000 tonnes however a increase in Glass recycling prns has again covered the shortfall although overall tonnages are down on last year’s figure. All other figures are up on the previous year with Paper reporting a solid 30,000 tonne increase which given the reported export problems for mixed paper must be seen as a positive result.

weekly-report-20218.jpg
PRN Weekly Market Report – Friday 2nd Feb 2018

Packing Recovery Notes Market Overview

This week we have seen frantic activity as we moved towards the close of the compliance year on Wednesday. The week started with strong activity in the aluminium market as the last remaining buyer secured their final evidence albeit as reported by some at a premium cost. No doubt keen observers will be eagerly awaiting the release of the 2017 final quarters aluminium tonnage as the tightness evidenced would appear to point to a weak quarter and reduced carry in. Small obligated companies with last minute demand along with some that had miscalculated previous purchasing requirements lead to the 2017 ending with a whimper. 2017 PRN availability tightened towards the end with some large last minute Glass buyers having to pay a premium to switch out previously contracted transitional tonnage. 2017 Wood demand continued to be met with higher value transitional prns. Concerns about the growth of wood demand in 2018 has resulted in the transitional market witnessing an early rally of the price up to £9.50 as these buyers competed with late 2017 buying. Most remaining materials finished the year in surplus with some sellers having pre December tonnage left unsold at the close.

As is traditional at this time of the compliance year, when buyers roles transfer from the hustle and bustle of final purchasing to the heavy administration workload that comes with the dreaded data round, trading opportunities became more limited. Buyers remained active in Plastic as concerns continue to surround export routes in 2018. Wood, Aluminium and Glass have seen good activity with forward contracts negotiated. All other materials namely, Paper, Steel and EFW held there price spreads against a background of weak demand.

   -Weekly-Market-Report-2nd-Feb-2018.jpg

 

 

   -Ian Andrews

Packaging Recovery Notes Weekly Market Report – 26th January 2018

2017 PRN Market

Mixed news from the 2017 market this previous week with prices for the troublesome Plastic starting to soften considerably as we head towards the end of the month. Prices dipped into high teens as a excessive supply was offered. In Aluminium, a large buying clip was satisfied which many believe is the end of the volume buying for 2017. Small aluminium documents continue to attract a premium. Buying continues to drift into the wood market with some later 2017 buyers required to pay a premium for transitional tonnage. All other materials appear in good health with the only other point of note being the Steel price falling and attracting some final general recycling requirements.

2018 PRN Market

The majority of activity in the 2018 market has centred on Plastic. Prices rose slightly as cautious buyers secured tonnage early. In the coming week we will get a better idea of prices as the market settles and focuses on 2018 opportunities. Glass is tipped to have a lower carry in this year with some sellers expecting an improvement on 2017 prices. The Aluminium market will be one to watch given that many of the predictions for a healthy surplus in 2017 do not appear to have come to pass.


 

PRN Weekly Market Report – Friday 19th January 2018

PRN Market Overview

2017 Market

Reasonable demand remains in the 2017 market with late buyers continuing to come to the market. Most prices have continued their downward trajectory with only Aluminium continuing to buck the trend. There are still some pockets of supply remaining in the market with prices remaining volatile. There are reports of some sellers willing to accept prices close to the 2017 average with others asking for a premium for those still requiring volume tonnage. As the remaining buying is satisfied one would expect prices to fall in the coming week. A slight tightening of the 2017 Glass supply has resulted in prices holding firm with reports of transitional tonnage being used to fill the remaining 2017 demand.

2018 Market

Prices have remained firm in the last week with Plastic dominating market activity. The price spread has narrowed with top end prices falling and bottom end prices rising slightly. With so many supply concerns being raised across all materials bar Steel and Recovery it is expected that transitional prices will hold up as we get to the end of the month.

With one week left until the door slams shut of the 2017 compliance year there will no doubt be a steady stream of small buyers still trying to secure tonnage. This year it would appear that some who have left it to late may not be able to secure all required materials.

 

 

   -Ian Andrews

Weekly PRN Market Report – Friday 12th January 2018

PRN Market Overview

This week we saw the release of the monthly figures covering the last month of 2017. While we can only estimate off these figures they do provide some indication of a positive return for the problematic 2017 materials. As outlined in the table below Aggregate glass continue its struggle being saved only by the surplus created in Remelt. It should however be noted that it has had to use some of the 2017 carry in to see it over the line. One would expect to see the 2018 carry in record a lower figure for Glass and it would be advised that this market should be one buyers review periodically this year. Plastic recorded a strong quarter albeit potentially down on the previous quarter but the stronger 2018 prices appear to be provided enough security to the export market to continue its move towards new end markets. Wood dominated trading discussions this week with increased prices being recorded in both the 2017 & 2018 markets. 2017 obligations are currently being satisfied with transitional tonnage which has resulted in a lift in that price as these late buyers compete with nervous 2018 buyers.

Aluminium appears to have had a strong Q4, calling into question the validity of some of the higher prices being reported in the last week. It would appear that some sellers who have struggled to move tonnage this year have decided to apply pressure on the late buyers to pay a premium. While there is nothing wrong with this strategy It would be foolish for these sellers to inflate prices too much as there appears to be more than enough tonnage to meet 2017 demand which could result in sellers being left with unsold tonnage at the end of the month. Concerns regarding a shortage in Paper tonnage which resulted in prices spiking towards the end of 2017 appear unfounded with good volume still available and prices softening. Both the Steel and Recovery markets continue to produce strong surpluses with prices in both years reflecting this position.

With only two more trading weeks until we can draw a line under the 2017 compliance year and, barring any dramatic last minute increase in demand one would expect 2017 tonnage values continue to soften unless sellers resistance builds as seen in Aluminium.

120118 PRN Market Report
Weekly PRN Market Report – Friday 5th January 2018

PRN Market Overview

With everyone returning to their desks from 10 days of over indulgence it has been interesting to identify were market pressure remains. Plastic again dominated trading activity with widespread media coverage over the festive period doing enough to see 2018 buyers increase their prices. The news for the 2017 prices was mixed with some price volatility being seen towards the end of the week as demand increased. Sellers have become wary of selling, with some holding off due to the risk of missing out on increased prices. While it may appear prudent to do so, sellers should be aware that once demand has been met the likelihood is that prices will soften towards the end of the month unless swapping options for transitional tonnage become available. The other market dominating early year discussions has been Wood with prices continuing to firm up as concerns regarding the increased 2018 targets start to appear. Some have commented that buyers have been active in this market for some time now with reports that some large demand has already been satisfied before the year began. On projections, although 2018 will see demand increase by approximately 160k there should be enough wood to meet material specific demand as long as other markets contribute accordingly to the general recycling pot of supply. Given that the Q1 figure 2017 for Wood was the lowest seen last year, buyers offering better opening prices for 2018 will hopefully provide the market with a stronger quarter and go some way to alleviate concerns, albeit in the short term. Price stability remained across most other markets with Aluminium the only market seeing an increase on 2017 prices.

 

Thank you once again for your support last year. Looking forward to seeing what challenges lay ahead for 2018.

 

 

   -Ian Andrews

050118 PRN Market Overview