PRN Market Report - Week Ending Friday 27th July 2018
Market Report – Wk. End : Friday 27th July 2018
A week on from the Q2 supply report which showed great improvements across all materials and we have seen very little effect on market prices. There may be numerous reasons as to why this has occurred. Traditionally demand softens at this time of the year as most traders head for the beaches and this year was no different although many had been watching for news on supply. When it was announced, reporting a more positive position many will have turned off their phones and returned to the beach. During the week, as has become the norm, we were greeted with news of potential export problems stemming from new end markets and this resulted in a softening Plastic price rebounding. All other material note values held their previously reported price spread in what could be best described as the slowest trading week of the year.
While weak trading activity has contributed to the lack of price movement this week, the analysis of the Q2 supply report will have played its part as many waited for evidence of how prices would react. Differing opinions created by the inclusion of this year’s “Carry In” tonnage being used in 2018 or 2019 saw predictions of relief or concern. The “Carry In” tonnage is the buffer supply provided by last year’s activity, to be used in times of short supply. It has become commonplace to discount this tonnage as it traditionally gets pushed forward into the following year. I believe that this should be included within the supply analysis for the purpose for which it was designed. The table below shows the “Carry In” included, and projections on required tonnage for Q3 & Q4. Within what looks like a relatively easy task there will be some surplus created which will be carried into 2019. This will be reported at the end of the compliance year to allow it to be factored into next year’s analysis. The “Carry In” information we have to hand this year should be utilised to address the concerns we have this year.